Category Archives: Case Studies

Case Study #6

Our current primary project relates to MOBGATE – a systemic corruption template underpinning the English Premier League (EPL) and, to a lesser extent, the Championship. Our Chinese backers, our cellular network and a group of other parties interested in integrity in the game have been working on this matchfixing and corruption scandal for 7 years.

We have revealed numerous matchfixing events in the EPL, we have evidence that five EPL clubs regularly take huge positions on their matches in fringe betting markets working together as a fragmented cartel of corruption, we have shown several examples of referees showing statistically significant bias in favour of chosen clubs (or vice versa), we have shown bias in the selection of players for the England national teams, we revealed the accommodating nature of a leading bookmaker to accepting insider trading for proprietary gain, we have shown betting patterns and other incriminating data linking systemic corruption entities to the markets and we have proved the existence of a calciopoli-like structure involving a leading football agent, the sole individual who selects referees for EPL games and one Select Group referee. One person was sacked and another internally disciplined as a result of our exposé as the English football hierarchy sought to keep a lid on MOBGATE with the acquiescence of a non-functioning 4th Estate media.

This research is ongoing with negotiations currently being held with two major bodies from the worlds of football and publishing. Consequently, we are both unable and unwilling to offer consultancy work in the English game. We are willing to discuss our evidences with policing bodies however.


Case Study #5

We have been approached by numerous agents over the years relating to our Holistic Sabermetrics service – this values players not just on the fundamentals that are utilised by  run-of-the-mill operations but also takes into account an array of factors relating to the criminalisation of football as well as other more laterally thought inputs into the valuation process.

We are selective about our working partners as, in our experience, many agents act as a lubrication of corruption in the sport. However, we have worked with one club on and off over the last five years providing holistic valuations of potential transfer targets.

The transfer market is highly inefficient – Michael Owen wasn’t worth £17m when he transferred from Real Madrid B to Newcastle and Gareth Bale was not worth £80m when he moved from Tottenham to Real Madrid. In both these cases, the buying club overpaid due to a combination of poor evaluation analyses and an atmosphere of media hype.

But Holistic Sabermetrics values players entirely holistically. If a forward plays alongside a frequently non-trying colleague or if defenders play in front of a rogue goalkeeper, how should their real transfer values be assessed? Or how does one incorporate matchfixing outcomes into the valuation process? Even more complex, how do a team that are systemically favoured or punished by a league have their players valued in the marketplace?

Holistic Sabermetrics provides a complete transfer valuation to the benefit of our clients.

Case Study #4

When the calciopoli crisis broke in Italian football in 2006, we offered our services to the Federazione Italiana Giuoco Calcio (FIGC) which resulted in a leech consultancy of 12 months duration. Six teams were found to have rigged matches by selecting favourable referees via GEA World football agents. Juventus were stripped of two titles and relegated, four other teams were sanctioned and, during season 2006/07, 13 referees were banned or suspended.

Our research and analyses showed that both Internazionale and Milan were equally guilty as these two clubs also manipulated referee selection for proprietary gain. Our consultancy was accepted but not acted upon until 2011 when inquiries by FIGC chief investigator, Stefano Palazzi, showed that Livorno, Internazionale and Milan should also have been relegated as part of the calciopoli processes.

The primary modus operandi of the systemic corruption in calciopoli is one that we have found replicated in more recent matchfixing cases – agents approaching coerced/ bribed/ accommodating league officials to select biased referees for particular matches for gains both on the field of play and in the betting markets.

Case Study #3

We worked with both an Australian trading operation and a European bookmaker in a two-tiered fashion. The first related to intermarket analyses between South East Asian and other market epicentres, and the second addressed the creation of market edge by utilising configurative analyses and real-time assessments of overall market structure and corrupted events.

At the time of the consultancies, South East Asian control of European markets was absolute and the strategies undertaken by the Asian underground to disguise market stances were intricate. By the end of the European consultancy (which lasted over a decade), we had incorporated Dark Pool operations in both Europe and Asia into our intermarket modelling. The Australian trading operation now form a part of our global cellular network.

With our second role, there was a duality to our aims – to detect matchfixing, insider trading operations or market sting strategies earlier than competitors in the marketplace. This allowed the trading operation/bookmaker to take defensive and/or assertive strategies to take the lead in the race for information on matches thereby increasing profits. Additionally we provided the most complete and accurate assessment of all fundamentals impacting upon the market price as, in the mid-nineties, the South East Asian markets were markedly more efficient than the European ones.

Nobody else offered a similar service until around 2005 – we were ten years ahead of our time – and our analyses still penetrate two levels further in market depth compared with the competition.

Case Study #2

We have worked with two European teams to enhance their chances of i) qualifying for Champions League group phase, and ii) improving probabilities of reaching the Champions Leage Round of 16 (only one of these contracts came to fruition as the other team clearly have integrity issues on their own account).

The UEFA Champions League is a branded event i.e. there are certain teams who must progress to certain stages of the competition to optimise revenue streams related to media, advertising and brand visibility. Lesser teams must utilise state of the art analyses to maximise their own chances of progression to the limited available slots past the barriers of exponential financial return.

For each qualifying round, a war room of strategy is developed to enable every possible edge to be gained for the team in the two-legged ties. Once group stage was achieved, a clear strategic plan was drawn up for the entire campaign both in the long term and on a match-by-match basis. Every fundamental or configurative input is addressed as well as the nefarious roles of the gobal betting markets and psychological and corruption forensics relating to match officials and opponents’ players.

We report to the chief executive who disseminates the relevant information to the specific parties. The contract was initially for one year but has been extended to two with real-time inputs to database maintenance and match evaluations to continue thereafter.

Case Study #1

We worked alongside a leading G14 European team in the development of an App for their playing staff. Each player receives a pre-match evaluation of opponents – weaknesses, strengths, issues of integrity and playing role within the team under different formations. Additionally, players are also shown information relating to referee corruption and psychology, insider trading and matchfixing operations active in the global markets on the match and the trading imperatives of schweintruppe.

Our input relates to corruption forensics and the integration of criminalised configurations into overall analyses of opponents. This role is consolidated pre-match and then continues when the match is in motion allowing all squad players to be updated on the state of play at half-time. The databases within the App are updated in real-time and allow holistic coverage of matches in the national league, Champions League and Europa League.

This high level consultancy was a 12 month contract with continued input on a game-by-game basis.