All posts by mfanalytics

Case Study #6

Our current primary project relates to MOBGATE – a systemic corruption template underpinning the English Premier League (EPL) and, to a lesser extent, the Championship. Our Chinese backers, our cellular network and a group of other parties interested in integrity in the game have been working on this matchfixing and corruption scandal for 7 years.

We have revealed numerous matchfixing events in the EPL, we have evidence that five EPL clubs regularly take huge positions on their matches in fringe betting markets working together as a fragmented cartel of corruption, we have shown several examples of referees showing statistically significant bias in favour of chosen clubs (or vice versa), we have shown bias in the selection of players for the England national teams, we revealed the accommodating nature of a leading bookmaker to accepting insider trading for proprietary gain, we have shown betting patterns and other incriminating data linking systemic corruption entities to the markets and we have proved the existence of a calciopoli-like structure involving a leading football agent, the sole individual who selects referees for EPL games and one Select Group referee. One person was sacked and another internally disciplined as a result of our exposé as the English football hierarchy sought to keep a lid on MOBGATE with the acquiescence of a non-functioning 4th Estate media.

This research is ongoing with negotiations currently being held with two major bodies from the worlds of football and publishing. Consequently, we are both unable and unwilling to offer consultancy work in the English game. We are willing to discuss our evidences with policing bodies however.

 

Case Study #5

We have been approached by numerous agents over the years relating to our Holistic Sabermetrics service – this values players not just on the fundamentals that are utilised by  run-of-the-mill operations but also takes into account an array of factors relating to the criminalisation of football as well as other more laterally thought inputs into the valuation process.

We are selective about our working partners as, in our experience, many agents act as a lubrication of corruption in the sport. However, we have worked with one club on and off over the last five years providing holistic valuations of potential transfer targets.

The transfer market is highly inefficient – Michael Owen wasn’t worth £17m when he transferred from Real Madrid B to Newcastle and Gareth Bale was not worth £80m when he moved from Tottenham to Real Madrid. In both these cases, the buying club overpaid due to a combination of poor evaluation analyses and an atmosphere of media hype.

But Holistic Sabermetrics values players entirely holistically. If a forward plays alongside a frequently non-trying colleague or if defenders play in front of a rogue goalkeeper, how should their real transfer values be assessed? Or how does one incorporate matchfixing outcomes into the valuation process? Even more complex, how do a team that are systemically favoured or punished by a league have their players valued in the marketplace?

Holistic Sabermetrics provides a complete transfer valuation to the benefit of our clients.

Case Study #4

When the calciopoli crisis broke in Italian football in 2006, we offered our services to the Federazione Italiana Giuoco Calcio (FIGC) which resulted in a leech consultancy of 12 months duration. Six teams were found to have rigged matches by selecting favourable referees via GEA World football agents. Juventus were stripped of two titles and relegated, four other teams were sanctioned and, during season 2006/07, 13 referees were banned or suspended.

Our research and analyses showed that both Internazionale and Milan were equally guilty as these two clubs also manipulated referee selection for proprietary gain. Our consultancy was accepted but not acted upon until 2011 when inquiries by FIGC chief investigator, Stefano Palazzi, showed that Livorno, Internazionale and Milan should also have been relegated as part of the calciopoli processes.

The primary modus operandi of the systemic corruption in calciopoli is one that we have found replicated in more recent matchfixing cases – agents approaching coerced/ bribed/ accommodating league officials to select biased referees for particular matches for gains both on the field of play and in the betting markets.

Case Study #3

We worked with both an Australian trading operation and a European bookmaker in a two-tiered fashion. The first related to intermarket analyses between South East Asian and other market epicentres, and the second addressed the creation of market edge by utilising configurative analyses and real-time assessments of overall market structure and corrupted events.

At the time of the consultancies, South East Asian control of European markets was absolute and the strategies undertaken by the Asian underground to disguise market stances were intricate. By the end of the European consultancy (which lasted over a decade), we had incorporated Dark Pool operations in both Europe and Asia into our intermarket modelling. The Australian trading operation now form a part of our global cellular network.

With our second role, there was a duality to our aims – to detect matchfixing, insider trading operations or market sting strategies earlier than competitors in the marketplace. This allowed the trading operation/bookmaker to take defensive and/or assertive strategies to take the lead in the race for information on matches thereby increasing profits. Additionally we provided the most complete and accurate assessment of all fundamentals impacting upon the market price as, in the mid-nineties, the South East Asian markets were markedly more efficient than the European ones.

Nobody else offered a similar service until around 2005 – we were ten years ahead of our time – and our analyses still penetrate two levels further in market depth compared with the competition.

Case Study #2

We have worked with two European teams to enhance their chances of i) qualifying for Champions League group phase, and ii) improving probabilities of reaching the Champions Leage Round of 16 (only one of these contracts came to fruition as the other team clearly have integrity issues on their own account).

The UEFA Champions League is a branded event i.e. there are certain teams who must progress to certain stages of the competition to optimise revenue streams related to media, advertising and brand visibility. Lesser teams must utilise state of the art analyses to maximise their own chances of progression to the limited available slots past the barriers of exponential financial return.

For each qualifying round, a war room of strategy is developed to enable every possible edge to be gained for the team in the two-legged ties. Once group stage was achieved, a clear strategic plan was drawn up for the entire campaign both in the long term and on a match-by-match basis. Every fundamental or configurative input is addressed as well as the nefarious roles of the gobal betting markets and psychological and corruption forensics relating to match officials and opponents’ players.

We report to the chief executive who disseminates the relevant information to the specific parties. The contract was initially for one year but has been extended to two with real-time inputs to database maintenance and match evaluations to continue thereafter.

Case Study #1

We worked alongside a leading G14 European team in the development of an App for their playing staff. Each player receives a pre-match evaluation of opponents – weaknesses, strengths, issues of integrity and playing role within the team under different formations. Additionally, players are also shown information relating to referee corruption and psychology, insider trading and matchfixing operations active in the global markets on the match and the trading imperatives of schweintruppe.

Our input relates to corruption forensics and the integration of criminalised configurations into overall analyses of opponents. This role is consolidated pre-match and then continues when the match is in motion allowing all squad players to be updated on the state of play at half-time. The databases within the App are updated in real-time and allow holistic coverage of matches in the national league, Champions League and Europa League.

This high level consultancy was a 12 month contract with continued input on a game-by-game basis.

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Football Analytics

Sports’ Analytics took off in 2014 with numerous entities being established or consolidated; unfortunately, none of these bodies are looking at the key data.

“We don’t have any competitors. We are in a niche of one. We are unique.”

This has now changed with the launch of a new business – Matchfixing Analytics

We address corruption and matchfixing in football in both grey and black markets utilising bespoke analytics and forensics together with enhanced modelling and unique holistics.

We offer High Level Consultancies for all areas of the global football industry and linked sectors – clubs, market makers, regulators, government, integrity monitoring bodies, agents, advocacy groups, analytics operations, police and institutional bodies.

All markets are functions of economic and psychological mechanisms but this formal construct is entirely delegitimised by the corrosive roles of corruption and insider trading, particularly in lightly regulated sectors like football. The resultant hologram of hyperreality is pure neo-Bayesian with chaotic statistical disorder.

We offer clients a robust edge in the corrupted marketplace of global football as clients want new insights, strategic defence, holistic modelling and Big Data.

The first intrusion of Big Data into sport came with Billy Beane and his use of sabermetrics in the valuation of baseball players. Sabermetrics in this basic form only applies to sports that are able to be broken down into discrete time segments eg cricket, NFL and baseball but fails miserably when utilised in games with interactive flow like football or in sports that are corrupt.

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Unfortunately, this lesson is yet to be learnt and Arsenal paid £2.165m for US-based StatDNA while Manchester City established MCFC Analytics, both of which collect massive (and largely irrelevant) data which attempt to quantify the flux of football while ignoring the considerable inputs that undermine the match outcome and the integrity of the sport (although it should be stated that the Arsenal operation is markedly more professional than the Mancunian one!).

Roy Hodgson’s England also utilised amateurish analytics prior to producing the nation’s worst ever World Cup performance and only group stage exit in Brazil 2014.

We incorporate corruption forensics into match analytic processes protecting clients against inproprietaries taken against their interests and hence enhancing outcomes.

Matchfixing has reached a stage of development where there are frequently two or more insider attempts at manipulating the outcome of a match. The reality might only become clear once the match is in progress. It is of consequence to participants and all associated with the event for the state of real-time corruptions to be assessed via analyses of the actions and psychologies of potentially corrupt officials and players and the related impacts on the markets of the criminalities at play.

We address such inputs at speed to the benefit of clients (as well as the efficiency of the markets).

A parallel might be drawn with other analytics companies.

In reality, such companies share macro data around market makers that offers no competitive edge due to its generality and lack of specificity. Everybody is plugging the same data into the same software, thinking they are creating unique insight when, in fact, off-the-shelf solutions are self-fulfilling and simply reinforce the mechanisms at play.

We operate two to three layers deeper than competitors in market information, access, evaluation and the detection of market abuses and matchfixing.

We will ensure scarcity in our selection of partners by restricting ourselves to only two concurrent contracts.

Club ownership structures, abuses of the transfer markets and matchfixing all share a culmination of corruption that resides in Offshore Financial Centres (OFCs). We create economic models of money flows between matchfixing operations, market makers, dark pools and the OFCs where the monies are laundered.

The vast majority of institutional bodies in world football have their own private and hidden agendas. Frequently, such agendas impact upon the integrity of the game.

Institutional corruption analyses are critical for clients to punch above their weight and for miscreants to be outed.

We transform the perceptions of corruptions of power lobbies at FIFA, UEFA, national associations and leagues, the betting monitoring bodies, IFAB and bodies representing match officials.

As football has morphed into a first tier global market with regard to the sheer volume traded, it has become increasingly necessary for all interested parties to be aware of the implications of the market structure.

We model market holistics.

MATCHFIXING ANALYTICS incorporates intermarket analyses, global market alliances, dark pool and underground market activities, proxy trading, the inputs of criminalised enterprises, fragmented cartels and syndicates, strategies to disguise volume and instantaneous global information flow into a holographic whole of market transparency.

If…

If referees in the Premier League earn a couple of grand per week while officiating on matches with global betting volumes of £5 billion,
If referees for all Premier League games are selected by just one individual;
If referees work with agents to promote the agents’ clients on the field of play,
If referees are at the root of most matchfixing crises:

If bookmakers accept insider trading merely treating it as competitive advantage in the marketplace,
If bookmakers trade such knowledge at dark pool poker tables of corruption;
If bookmakers own football clubs and, on occasions, coerce players to perform appropriately,
If bookmakers create spot markets to corrupt the minutiae of in-play actions:

If agents are largely non-regulated and are the primary lubrication of criminalities in the sport,
If agents work together in a fragmented cartel to pool ownership of players to solicit matchfixing;
If agents are engaging in third party ownership and the trafficking of children from developing countries,
If agents pay backhanders to managers to pick certain players for mutual benefit:

If institutional bodies decide on winners and losers according to private agendas of power and marketing,
If institutional bodies incorporate systemic corruptions at top levels of the game;
If institutional bodies established to monitor insider trading and matchfixing are infrastructurally compromised,
If there are no global, EU or governmental actions to confront these corruptions:

If clubs, owners, managers, referees, agents, administrators and players bet on the outcomes of games,
If clubs exert power over lesser clubs in the same leagues with agreed outcomes being the norm;
If clubs focus more on unearthing lucrative marketing deals than on winning trophies,
If clubs built on debt can only survive by matchfixing their games:

If coercion, threats, menaces, violence and murders are the primary modes of controlling non-acquiescent individuals,
If transnational organised crime and global mafiosi are actively involved at all levels of corruption;
If suitcases of cash and offshore illicit money flows are the norm in financial transactions,
If there are administrators who facilitate these corruptions based on laissez faire capitalism:

If the Fit-and-Proper-Person Test results in clubs being owned by entirely unfit and entirely improper individuals,
If owners take over clubs to asset strip and to monetise the debris via inversion capitalism;
If money laundering, fraud, utilisation of offshore financial centres and beneficial ownership is the norm,
If clubs are held offshore for tax and/or regulatory avoidance to the benefit of the owners:

If spurious and fake arguments are repeatedly made against the use of video technology in the sport,
If there are no laws against insider trading and no Commitment of Traders’ reports;
If there is widespread use of performance enhancing substances and their related masking agents,
If the market capitalisation of major clubs is dwarfed by global betting turnover on any of their matches:

If fans and the public are kept in the dark about all these machinations due to a blackout by the mainstream media,
If there is nowhere for whistleblowers to go with information about corruptions;
If the reward for being a criminalised player is a lifelong role as a media analyst or commentator,
If huge fortunes are being made while meritocracy is always trumped by the performativity of corrupt practices:

Then FOOTBALL IS FIXED as is everything within it,
And – what is more – ’tis merely high stakes poker, my son.